$s and primaries
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Michigan's presidential primary show has ended. A few observations:
Spending for television advertisements is one metric we have to assess the impact of money in the process. By that measure, the candidate who spent the most won. That is consistent with 95% of Michigan elections.
In round numbers, Willard "Mitt" Romney spent $2.1 million for TV ads, John McCain spent $750,000 and Mike Huckabee spent $500,000. Significantly, the anti-tax Club for Growth spent $186,000 opposing Huckabee. Insignificantly, some committee called Citizens for Small Government spent $2,000 for cable ads touting Ron Paul in Kalamazoo, and Dennis Kucinich violated the DNC quarantine against campaigning in Michigan by spending $10,000 in Detroit.
The candidates' committees haven't filed a campaign finance report since the end of the third quarter last year, so this spending is some sort of proxy for the relative financial health of the campaigns. As of that third quarter 2007 report, Romney had $9.2 million in hand for the primaries, Huckabee had $700,000 and McCain had $1.6 million in cash and $1.7 million in debt. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton had $34.6 million, Barack Obama had $31.9 million and John Edwards had $10 million. We'll get a year-end snapshot of the state of the candidates' financial affairs on January 31st when the next reports are due at the FEC.
In the retail-politics contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, Huckabee and McCain were able to win even though they were outspent (at least we're told they were outspent there, too). I haven't seen anything definitive about who outspent whom in the Democratic contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. Now that we're into the mass-marketing part of the process, it's less certain that a real financial underdog can prevail. At this point all the campaigns have to be functioning, at least somewhat, in a hand-to-mouth financial mode, and prospective contributors are surely asking, "What have you won lately?"
The Michigan Democratic Party's primary self-immolation will end up being an understated protest against the insane schedule of the primaries. How would you advise your favorite candidate to market him- or herself on Tsunami Tuesday, coming out of Nevada, South Carolina and Florida? Primaries are scheduled on February 5th for Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah. How many media markets can any of the candidates afford? How many airports can they visit?
On the brighter side, there have been so many "debates" and so much news coverage that most interested voters probably have some well-formed opinions about the candidates. I sure hope so, and I sure hope we figure out a better way to select our candidates. The great scrum of 2008 is a mess.
Spending for television advertisements is one metric we have to assess the impact of money in the process. By that measure, the candidate who spent the most won. That is consistent with 95% of Michigan elections.
In round numbers, Willard "Mitt" Romney spent $2.1 million for TV ads, John McCain spent $750,000 and Mike Huckabee spent $500,000. Significantly, the anti-tax Club for Growth spent $186,000 opposing Huckabee. Insignificantly, some committee called Citizens for Small Government spent $2,000 for cable ads touting Ron Paul in Kalamazoo, and Dennis Kucinich violated the DNC quarantine against campaigning in Michigan by spending $10,000 in Detroit.
The candidates' committees haven't filed a campaign finance report since the end of the third quarter last year, so this spending is some sort of proxy for the relative financial health of the campaigns. As of that third quarter 2007 report, Romney had $9.2 million in hand for the primaries, Huckabee had $700,000 and McCain had $1.6 million in cash and $1.7 million in debt. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton had $34.6 million, Barack Obama had $31.9 million and John Edwards had $10 million. We'll get a year-end snapshot of the state of the candidates' financial affairs on January 31st when the next reports are due at the FEC.
In the retail-politics contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, Huckabee and McCain were able to win even though they were outspent (at least we're told they were outspent there, too). I haven't seen anything definitive about who outspent whom in the Democratic contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. Now that we're into the mass-marketing part of the process, it's less certain that a real financial underdog can prevail. At this point all the campaigns have to be functioning, at least somewhat, in a hand-to-mouth financial mode, and prospective contributors are surely asking, "What have you won lately?"
The Michigan Democratic Party's primary self-immolation will end up being an understated protest against the insane schedule of the primaries. How would you advise your favorite candidate to market him- or herself on Tsunami Tuesday, coming out of Nevada, South Carolina and Florida? Primaries are scheduled on February 5th for Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah. How many media markets can any of the candidates afford? How many airports can they visit?
On the brighter side, there have been so many "debates" and so much news coverage that most interested voters probably have some well-formed opinions about the candidates. I sure hope so, and I sure hope we figure out a better way to select our candidates. The great scrum of 2008 is a mess.